Quick answer: Watch for a high refund rate, refunds in early playtime (the refund window), refund reasons citing crashes, and refunds spiking after a bad update. Many refunds come from a preventable bad early experience.
A refund is a player deciding your game isn't worth keeping, often over a technical problem early on. Here are the signs your game is getting refunded.
A High Refund Rate
The direct sign is a high refund rate, a large share of buyers refunding the game. If your refund rate is high (or higher than comparable games), players are buying, trying, and rejecting the game, often over problems they hit early, in the refund window where refunds are easy.
Bugnet captures the crashes and technical problems behind refunds, so you can fix the causes. A high refund rate is the direct sign, and pairing it with crash data (especially first-session) is how you find the causes, since many refunds come from a bad early experience (crashes, performance) in the refund window, which crash data reveals.
Refunds Concentrated in the Early Playtime
A sign is refunds concentrated in the early playtime, within the refund window (e.g. Steam's ~two-hour limit). Since refunds are available early, a bad early experience, especially a crash, converts directly into a refund. Refunds clustering in the first hours point at early-experience problems driving them.
Bugnet captures first-session crashes with breadcrumbs, so early-experience problems driving refunds are identifiable. Refunds concentrated in early playtime are a sign that early-experience problems are driving them, since the refund window overlaps with the early game, a crash or bad experience there converts to a refund, so capturing and fixing the early-experience crashes addresses the refunds at their source.
Refund Reasons Citing Crashes and Spikes After Updates
Signs include refund reasons or reviews citing crashes, bugs, or technical problems (the game being broken), and refunds spiking after a bad update (which makes more players hit problems in the window). If players are refunding over technical issues, or refunds jump after an update, technical problems are driving the refunds.
Bugnet tracks crashes per version, so a refund spike after a bad update is connectable to the issues. Refund reasons citing crashes and spikes after updates are signs technical problems drive the refunds, and capturing the crashes (and tracking per version) connects the refunds to their technical causes, so you can fix them, especially the early-experience and update-introduced ones that convert most directly to refunds.
Watch for a high refund rate, refunds in early playtime (the refund window), refund reasons citing crashes, and refunds spiking after a bad update. Many refunds come from a preventable bad early experience.